Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees FC Seoul travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 March 2022, 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
FC Seoul — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
FC Seoul's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.90 PPG, FC Seoul 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ulsan Hyundai FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Seoul in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus FC Seoul 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | FC Seoul 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.97 xG and FC Seoul 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.093 / defence 0.980 | FC Seoul attack 0.963 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 0.950 / away 0.934. Data: 37 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 37 FC Seoul games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 36% | Draw 32% | FC Seoul 31%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | FC Seoul 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. This conflicts with form data: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | FC Seoul 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Mar 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 36% | Draw 32% | FC Seoul 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.97 / FC Seoul 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.093 / def 0.980 | FC Seoul attack 0.963 / def 0.933 | league avg home 0.950 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.88
FC Seoul xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 10:00 on Friday 11 March 2022 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 1 FC Seoul.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 36% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. FC Seoul (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.09) and FC Seoul's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
36%
2.76
32%
3.10
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
1.85
0.88
FC Seoul xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 13.9 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.88 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 38 games, going 21W 11D 6L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, FC Seoul sit at 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (12W 11D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 13W 5D 1L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Seoul have taken 1.37 points per game from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 games (1.95 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.32 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or FC Seoul been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, FC Seoul in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Seoul won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4
Draws
3
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FC Seoul 1-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%, FC Seoul 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 37% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; FC Seoul in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 58% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 37% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out FC Seoul 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat FC Seoul 2-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.97 xG and FC Seoul 0.88 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.09 / defence 0.98 against FC Seoul attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 36% | Draw 32% | FC Seoul 31%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%, FC Seoul 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Seoul's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.