Suwon City FC 2-4 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gangwon FC make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 July 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Suwon City FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 5W 1D 4L at Suwon Sports Complex — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gangwon FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.40 for Gangwon FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Gangwon FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Gangwon FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 58% versus Gangwon FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 59% | Gangwon FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 2.52 xG and Gangwon FC 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.424 / defence 1.352 | Gangwon FC attack 0.931 / defence 1.319. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.181. Suwon City FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.424 — their λ of 2.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Gangwon FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.319 — this is suppressing Suwon City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Suwon City FC games / 54 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 60% | Draw 19% | Gangwon FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 1.67 | Draw 5.26 | Gangwon FC 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Suwon City FC (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.52 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.00 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 80% | Gangwon FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 60% | Draw 19% | Gangwon FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 71% | xG Suwon City FC 2.52 / Gangwon FC 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.424 / def 1.352 | Gangwon FC attack 0.931 / def 1.319 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Gangwon FC xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Suwon City FC 2 - 4 Gangwon FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 60% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 1.42x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.93x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.7%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
60%
1.67
19%
5.33
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
4.00
1.49
Gangwon FC xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.49
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
8%
12.39
Win to Nil
14%
7.41
2%
57.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.49 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 22W 13D 24L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gangwon FC's form line: 17W 19D 23L from 59 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.19 for Gangwon FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Suwon City FC have posted 1.59 PPG from 29 outings (14W 4D 11L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 4W 9D 16L from 29 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gangwon FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.17 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 59 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Blended
Gangwon FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 22W 13D 24L in their last 59 games (1.34 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 17W 19D 23L in their last 59 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.59 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 4-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
3
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 69%, Gangwon FC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Suwon City FC and 48% for Gangwon FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Gangwon FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Suwon City FC's games and 55% of Gangwon FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Suwon City FC's matches and 48% of Gangwon FC's.
Do Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gangwon FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Suwon City FC 2-4 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 2.52 xG and Gangwon FC 1.49 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Gangwon FC outscored their 1.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.42 / defence 1.35 against Gangwon FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.32, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 60% | Draw 19% | Gangwon FC 21%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Gangwon FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 59%, Gangwon FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.34 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.