Suwon City FC 5-3 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 46%, yet in-form Daejeon Citizen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen meet at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 April 2023 at 07:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Suwon City FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon City FC's home record at Suwon Sports Complex: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Daejeon Citizen's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games (2.25 PPG). Last five: W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Daejeon Citizen have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Daejeon Citizen arrive in superior form — a 1.05 PPG advantage (2.25 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Suwon City FC half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Daejeon Citizen half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 50% versus Daejeon Citizen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Suwon City FC 75% | Daejeon Citizen 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 2.02 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.087 / defence 1.125 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.298 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.078. Daejeon Citizen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Suwon City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Daejeon Citizen have an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Suwon City FC games / 5 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 46% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 28%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Daejeon Citizen 3.57. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon City FC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daejeon Citizen (2.25 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 70% | Daejeon Citizen 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 46% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 71% | xG Suwon City FC 2.02 / Daejeon Citizen 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.087 / def 1.125 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.298 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Daejeon Citizen xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Suwon City FC 5 - 3 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 46% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.09) and Daejeon Citizen's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Daejeon Citizen's attack (1.30x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 38/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.75
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.59
1.57
Daejeon Citizen xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.49
Clean Sheet
21%
4.83
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
4%
27.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.57 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Suwon City FC come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 0D 3L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Suwon City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Daejeon Citizen sit at 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Daejeon Citizen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Daejeon Citizen in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Early Season
Daejeon Citizen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have Suwon City FC or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 3-0 on 18 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Daejeon Citizen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
4
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 5, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Daejeon Citizen 3-2 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 50%, Daejeon Citizen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Suwon City FC and 75% for Daejeon Citizen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen in 50%; Suwon City FC have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 50% of Daejeon Citizen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Suwon City FC's matches and 75% of Daejeon Citizen's.
Do Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Daejeon Citizen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Daejeon Citizen 5-3 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 2.02 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.57 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.12 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.30 / defence 1.26, drawn from 38/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 46% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 28%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 75%, Daejeon Citizen 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Suwon City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Suwon City FC scored 5 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.