Suwon Bluewings 2-2 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Suwon Bluewings welcome Gangwon FC to Suwon World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon Bluewings stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Suwon Bluewings have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Gangwon FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gangwon FC's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Suwon Bluewings 1.00 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Suwon Bluewings, 1 for Gangwon FC and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 3–2 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Gangwon FC trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 45% versus Gangwon FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 50% | Gangwon FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 0.92 xG and Gangwon FC 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.929 / defence 0.967 | Gangwon FC attack 0.878 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 0.918. Data: 38 Suwon Bluewings games / 38 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 37% | Draw 34% | Gangwon FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Gangwon FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Gangwon FC's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon Bluewings at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.70 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Suwon Bluewings 50% | Gangwon FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 37% | Draw 34% | Gangwon FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Suwon Bluewings 0.92 / Gangwon FC 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.929 / def 0.967 | Gangwon FC attack 0.878 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.040 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Gangwon FC xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Suwon Bluewings 2 - 2 Gangwon FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 37% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC?
Record (3 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 1W | Draws 1 | Gangwon FC 1W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (0.93) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
37%
2.71
34%
2.95
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
1.70
0.78
Gangwon FC xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.07
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
12%
8.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.3 | 14.3 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.0%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 0.78 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Suwon Bluewings come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 10D 16L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.21 PPG from 38 outings (11W 13D 14L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon Bluewings on 1.21 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Suwon Bluewings's home form reads 5W 6D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 0.74 points per game from 19 outings (3W 5D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gangwon FC's season.
The Goals Picture
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Gangwon FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.11 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2021, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
5
Draws
2
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC?
Suwon Bluewings have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 58%, Gangwon FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Suwon Bluewings) and 42% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 26% of games; Gangwon FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Gangwon FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 53% of Gangwon FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 42% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 0.92 xG and Gangwon FC 0.78 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gangwon FC outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.93 / defence 0.97 against Gangwon FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 37% | Draw 34% | Gangwon FC 29%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 50%, Gangwon FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.21 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.