Seongnam FC 1-0 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pohang Steelers at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Pohang Steelers travel to Tancheon Sports Complex to take on Seongnam FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Seongnam FC have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Seongnam FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Seongnam FC have posted 3W 1D 6L at Tancheon Sports Complex — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Seongnam FC are significantly better at Tancheon Sports Complex than their overall form suggests.
Pohang Steelers — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pohang Steelers's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Pohang Steelers's 1.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Seongnam FC's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Seongnam FC, 1 for Pohang Steelers and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Pohang Steelers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Seongnam FC trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Pohang Steelers trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seongnam FC 45% versus Pohang Steelers 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Seongnam FC 45% | Pohang Steelers 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.03 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.904 / defence 1.442 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.898 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 0.946 / away 1.283. Pohang Steelers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Seongnam FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Seongnam FC games / 21 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 22% | Draw 27% | Pohang Steelers 51%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Pohang Steelers 1.96. Pohang Steelers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pohang Steelers are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Seongnam FC 50% | Pohang Steelers 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 22% | Draw 27% | Pohang Steelers 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Seongnam FC 1.03 / Pohang Steelers 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.904 / def 1.442 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.898 / def 1.201 | league avg home 0.946 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Pohang Steelers xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Seongnam FC 1 - 0 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 22% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers?
Record (2 meetings): Seongnam FC 1W | Draws 0 | Pohang Steelers 1W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Seongnam FC's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Pohang Steelers's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Seongnam FC's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
22%
4.52
27%
3.71
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.66
Pohang Steelers xG
4.52
22%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
4%
23.81
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.66 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Seongnam FC have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 4W 7D 9L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Seongnam FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pohang Steelers's form line: 7W 7D 6L from 20 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pohang Steelers are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Seongnam FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Seongnam FC have posted 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (3W 1D 6L).
On the road, Pohang Steelers have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Seongnam FC are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.00 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 20 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Blended
Pohang Steelers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Seongnam FC have gone 4W 7D 9L in their last 20 games (0.95 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 7W 7D 6L in their last 20 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seongnam FC at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Pohang Steelers's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seongnam FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Seongnam FC or Pohang Steelers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Seongnam FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Pohang Steelers in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Jul 2022, when Pohang Steelers won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Seongnam FC's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Seongnam FC
1
Draws
3
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 3, Pohang Steelers have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 1-1 Pohang Steelers.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seongnam FC 50%, Pohang Steelers 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Seongnam FC) and 40% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seongnam FC play Pohang Steelers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Seongnam FC's games and 70% of Pohang Steelers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Seongnam FC's recent games and 40% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers tend to score early?
Seongnam FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Pohang Steelers in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Seongnam FC defy the odds to beat Pohang Steelers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC beat Pohang Steelers 1-0 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.03 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.66 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pohang Steelers landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.44 against Pohang Steelers attack 0.90 / defence 1.20, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 22% | Draw 27% | Pohang Steelers 51%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Seongnam FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seongnam FC 45%, Pohang Steelers 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seongnam FC's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pohang Steelers arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Seongnam FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.