Seongnam FC 2-1 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Seongnam FC take on Pohang Steelers.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Pohang Steelers travel to Tancheon Sports Complex to take on Seongnam FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2021, 05:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 0.91 xG and Pohang Steelers 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.846 / defence 0.939 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.979 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 0.921 / away 1.015. Data: 5 Seongnam FC games / 5 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 29% | Draw 40% | Pohang Steelers 30%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 3.45 | Draw 2.50 | Pohang Steelers 3.33. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2021, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 29% | Draw 40% | Pohang Steelers 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 40% | xG Seongnam FC 0.91 / Pohang Steelers 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.846 / def 0.939 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.979 / def 1.172 | league avg home 0.921 / away 1.015 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Pohang Steelers xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 21 March 2021 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Seongnam FC 2 - 1 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 29% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 30% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Seongnam FC's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Pohang Steelers's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Seongnam FC's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.42
40%
2.47
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
1.85
0.93
Pohang Steelers xG
3.42
29%
Home win
2.47
40%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
12%
8.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 14.7 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 0.93 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
Pohang Steelers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Jul 2022, when Pohang Steelers won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Seongnam FC's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Seongnam FC
1
Draws
3
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 3, Pohang Steelers have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 1-1 Pohang Steelers.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Seongnam FC defy the odds to beat Pohang Steelers 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC beat Pohang Steelers 2-1 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 0.91 xG and Pohang Steelers 0.93 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Seongnam FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.94 against Pohang Steelers attack 0.98 / defence 1.17, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 29% | Draw 40% | Pohang Steelers 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Seongnam FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.