Seongnam FC 0-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Seongnam FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Daegu FC make the trip to Tancheon Sports Complex to face Seongnam FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 September 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Seongnam FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Seongnam FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Seongnam FC at Tancheon Sports Complex this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Daegu FC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Seongnam FC against 1.10 for Daegu FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Seongnam FC 0W, Daegu FC 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 1–3 with Daegu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Seongnam FC — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seongnam FC 42% versus Daegu FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seongnam FC 42% | Daegu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.11 xG and Daegu FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.812 / defence 1.231 | Daegu FC attack 0.765 / defence 1.379. League average goals — home 0.990 / away 1.105. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.379 — this is suppressing Seongnam FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Seongnam FC games / 26 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 37% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Daegu FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Seongnam FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Seongnam FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Seongnam FC 50% | Daegu FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Sep 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 37% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Seongnam FC 1.11 / Daegu FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.812 / def 1.231 | Daegu FC attack 0.765 / def 1.379 | league avg home 0.990 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Seongnam FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Daegu FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 4 September 2021 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC?
Seongnam FC 0 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 37% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Seongnam FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Seongnam FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Daegu FC?
Record (2 meetings): Seongnam FC 0W | Draws 1 | Daegu FC 1W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Daegu FC in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Seongnam FC's attack at 0.81x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.77x) against Seongnam FC's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Seongnam FC Win
37%
2.70
30%
3.39
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
2.15
1.04
Daegu FC xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.04 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Seongnam FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 8D 12L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Seongnam FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Daegu FC's form line: 10W 7D 9L from 26 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Daegu FC are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Seongnam FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Seongnam FC have posted 1.17 PPG from 12 outings (4W 2D 6L).
On the road, Daegu FC have gone 4W 2D 6L from 12 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Seongnam FC are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.19 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 26 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Blended
Daegu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seongnam FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Seongnam FC have gone 6W 8D 12L in their last 26 games (1.00 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 10W 7D 9L in their last 26 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seongnam FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Seongnam FC's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seongnam FC at home: 1.17 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Seongnam FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Seongnam FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Seongnam FC have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Seongnam FC
4
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Daegu FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 0, Daegu FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2022, when Seongnam FC 4-4 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Seongnam FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seongnam FC 42%, Daegu FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Seongnam FC) and 50% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Seongnam FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Daegu FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seongnam FC play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Seongnam FC's recent matches and 50% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seongnam FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Seongnam FC's recent games and 50% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Seongnam FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Seongnam FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Seongnam FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC and Daegu FC finished level at 0-0 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.11 xG and Daegu FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Seongnam FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Daegu FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.23 against Daegu FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.38, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 37% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 34%, with Seongnam FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seongnam FC 42%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seongnam FC's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Daegu FC's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Daegu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.