Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played a K League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 1W 2D 7L at Gimcheon Stadium — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ulsan Hyundai FC — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 1 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.93 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.858 / defence 1.150 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.043 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.078 / away 0.980. Data: 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 34 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 28% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 28% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.93 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.858 / def 1.150 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.043 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.078 / away 0.980 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 28% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (1 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W | Draws 0 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
28%
3.57
31%
3.18
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.10
1.18
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
9%
11.56
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 14.3 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.18 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 8W 14D 18L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. Gimcheon Sangmu FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 24W 7D 9L from 40 games, 1.98 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 1.00 PPG from 20 outings (5W 5D 10L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 11W 3D 6L from 20 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.65 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 24W 7D 9L in their last 40 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 55%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 55% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 55% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-3 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.93 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 1/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 28% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.