Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC meet at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 June 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.21 xG and Suwon City FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.862 / defence 1.060 | Suwon City FC attack 0.924 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.121. Data: 15 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 48 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Suwon City FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jun 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.21 / Suwon City FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.862 / def 1.060 | Suwon City FC attack 0.924 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Suwon City FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 17 June 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 39% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Suwon City FC away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.92x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 15/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.54
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.31
1.10
Suwon City FC xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.73
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.10 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 1-4 on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
4
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 Suwon City FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.21 xG and Suwon City FC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Suwon City FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.18, drawn from 15/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 33%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.