Pohang Steelers 3-1 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 52%, yet in-form Gangwon FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pohang Steelers vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pohang Steelers and Gangwon FC meet at Steelyard Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 June 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pohang Steelers's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pohang Steelers have posted 3W 1D 6L at Steelyard Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gangwon FC (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Gangwon FC are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Pohang Steelers — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Gangwon FC — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 50% versus Gangwon FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 42% | Gangwon FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.37 xG and Gangwon FC 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.983 / defence 0.769 | Gangwon FC attack 0.860 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.119. Pohang Steelers's defence rating of 0.769 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Pohang Steelers games / 48 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 52% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Gangwon FC 5.00. Pohang Steelers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pohang Steelers at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gangwon FC (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pohang Steelers 60% | Gangwon FC 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jun 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 52% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.37 / Gangwon FC 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.983 / def 0.769 | Gangwon FC attack 0.860 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Gangwon FC xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 17 June 2022 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Gangwon FC?
Pohang Steelers 3 - 1 Gangwon FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Gangwon FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 52% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Gangwon FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 0.98x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.86x) against Pohang Steelers's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.58
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.11
0.74
Gangwon FC xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
5%
19.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.3 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.74 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pohang Steelers's recent record stands at 12W 10D 16L from 38 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Gangwon FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 14L across 38 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Pohang Steelers against 1.21 for Gangwon FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pohang Steelers have managed 5W 5D 9L from 19 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gangwon FC's away record stands at 3W 5D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gangwon FC's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 12W 10D 16L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Gangwon FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.05 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pohang Steelers have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pohang Steelers
1
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 5, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Gangwon FC 1-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Gangwon FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 47%, Gangwon FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pohang Steelers) and 42% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Pohang Steelers have failed to score in 32% of games; Gangwon FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 53% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 42% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Pohang Steelers cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gangwon FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Gangwon FC 3-1 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.37 xG and Gangwon FC 0.74 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pohang Steelers beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.98 / defence 0.77 against Gangwon FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.19, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 52% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 20%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 42%, Gangwon FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.21 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.