Jeonbuk Motors 2-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeonju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeonbuk Motors versus Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 28 August 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeonbuk Motors have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 6W 2D 2L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Jeonbuk Motors — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jeonbuk Motors 58% and Suwon City FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 46% | Suwon City FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.84 xG and Suwon City FC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.455 / defence 1.152 | Suwon City FC attack 1.198 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.115. Jeonbuk Motors carry an above-average attack strength of 1.455 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Jeonbuk Motors's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Jeonbuk Motors games / 26 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 45% | Draw 23% | Suwon City FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Suwon City FC 3.12. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 60% | Suwon City FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 45% | Draw 23% | Suwon City FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.84 / Suwon City FC 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.455 / def 1.152 | Suwon City FC attack 1.198 / def 1.291 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Suwon City FC xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 2 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 45% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.46x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (1.20x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 24/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
45%
2.24
23%
4.32
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
3.38
1.54
Suwon City FC xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
16%
6.31
Win to Nil
10%
10.42
5%
19.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.54 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 13W 7D 4L from 24 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon City FC, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 8L across 24 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 8W 2D 2L from 12 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon City FC's away record stands at 5W 3D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 62%.
Last 24 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 13W 7D 4L in their last 24 games (1.92 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 10W 6D 8L in their last 24 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Suwon City FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 2.17 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-6 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 67%, Suwon City FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Jeonbuk Motors and 58% for Suwon City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 58% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Jeonbuk Motors's matches and 58% of Suwon City FC's.
Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.84 xG and Suwon City FC 1.54 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.46 / defence 1.15 against Suwon City FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.29, drawn from 24/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 45% | Draw 23% | Suwon City FC 32%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 46%, Suwon City FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.