Jeonbuk Motors 3-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeonju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeonbuk Motors versus Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeonbuk Motors have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 6W 4D 0L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Jeonbuk Motors's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Jeonbuk Motors 1W, Suwon City FC 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Suwon City FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Jeonbuk Motors — key trading statistics (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 54% versus Suwon City FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 46% | Suwon City FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.40 xG and Suwon City FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.907 / defence 0.962 | Suwon City FC attack 0.838 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.283. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Jeonbuk Motors's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Jeonbuk Motors games / 46 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Suwon City FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jeonbuk Motors 60% | Suwon City FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.40 / Suwon City FC 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.907 / def 0.962 | Suwon City FC attack 0.838 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Suwon City FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 3 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 44% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
Record (2 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 1W | Draws 0 | Suwon City FC 1W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 0.91x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.84x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.44
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.43
1.03
Suwon City FC xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
7%
15.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.03 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 43W 20D 13L from 76 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Suwon City FC, meanwhile, have gone 27W 18D 31L across 76 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Suwon City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 20W 11D 6L from 37 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon City FC's away record stands at 9W 11D 17L across 37 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 61%.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 games (1.96 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 27W 18D 31L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Suwon City FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.92 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-6 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 57%, Suwon City FC 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 51% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 51% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 51% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Jeonbuk Motors cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Suwon City FC 3-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.40 xG and Suwon City FC 1.03 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Suwon City FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.28, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 27%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 46%, Suwon City FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.