Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors host Suwon Bluewings at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 06:20 UTC.
Form Guide
Jeonbuk Motors — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Jeonbuk Motors's home record at Jeonju World Cup Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon Bluewings stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Suwon Bluewings's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Jeonbuk Motors have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jeonbuk Motors, 1 for Suwon Bluewings and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2021, ended 1–3 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 57% versus Suwon Bluewings 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 46% | Suwon Bluewings 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.63 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.326 / defence 1.180 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.858 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 0.987 / away 1.141. Jeonbuk Motors carry an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — their λ of 1.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Suwon Bluewings bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Jeonbuk Motors's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Jeonbuk Motors games / 28 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 48% | Draw 26% | Suwon Bluewings 27%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Suwon Bluewings 3.70. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 60% | Suwon Bluewings 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 06:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 48% | Draw 26% | Suwon Bluewings 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.63 / Suwon Bluewings 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.326 / def 1.180 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.858 / def 1.243 | league avg home 0.987 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Suwon Bluewings xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 06:20 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 0 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 48% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (2 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 1W | Draws 0 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jeonbuk Motors's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.92
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.78
1.16
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
5%
19.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.16 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Jeonbuk Motors have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 14W 9D 5L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Suwon Bluewings's form line: 9W 9D 10L from 28 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Jeonbuk Motors are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon Bluewings.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L).
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 5W 4D 4L from 13 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Suwon Bluewings in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 14W 9D 5L in their last 28 games (1.82 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 9W 9D 10L in their last 28 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.85 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2021, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeonbuk Motors
2
Draws
1
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, Suwon Bluewings have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2023, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 62%, Suwon Bluewings 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 54% (Suwon Bluewings). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 46%; Suwon Bluewings in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 38% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Jeonbuk Motors's matches and 54% of Suwon Bluewings's.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Suwon Bluewings in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Suwon Bluewings 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Suwon Bluewings 1-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.63 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.16 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon Bluewings landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.33 / defence 1.18 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.86 / defence 1.24, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 48% | Draw 26% | Suwon Bluewings 27%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 46%, Suwon Bluewings 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.