Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Jeonbuk Motors (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jeonbuk Motors face Suwon Bluewings.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors host Suwon Bluewings at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 March 2023 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jeonbuk Motors — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeonbuk Motors's home record at Jeonju World Cup Stadium: 6W 4D 0L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon Bluewings stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Suwon Bluewings's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Jeonbuk Motors have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jeonbuk Motors register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Suwon Bluewings in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Jeonbuk Motors: 6 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Suwon Bluewings, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 3–2 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jeonbuk Motors and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 54% versus Suwon Bluewings 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 46% | Suwon Bluewings 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.41 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.983 / defence 0.964 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.992 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.251. Data: 34 Jeonbuk Motors games / 34 Suwon Bluewings games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 41% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 32%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Suwon Bluewings 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 60% | Suwon Bluewings 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 41% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.41 / Suwon Bluewings 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.983 / def 0.964 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.992 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Suwon Bluewings xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 41% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (7 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 6W | Draws 0 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jeonbuk Motors's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
41%
2.41
27%
3.71
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.60
1.20
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
8%
12.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.20 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Jeonbuk Motors have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 43W 20D 13L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Suwon Bluewings's form line: 22W 22D 32L from 76 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Jeonbuk Motors are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon Bluewings.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 1.95 PPG from 38 outings (21W 11D 6L).
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 12W 9D 17L from 38 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.13 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 games (1.96 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 22W 22D 32L in their last 76 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.95 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2021, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeonbuk Motors
2
Draws
1
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, Suwon Bluewings have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2023, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 55%, Suwon Bluewings 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 47% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 42% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 47% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon Bluewings finished level at 1-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.41 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.20 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.99 / defence 1.02, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 41% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 32%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 46%, Suwon Bluewings 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.