Jeonbuk Motors 1-3 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gangwon FC make the trip to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to face Jeonbuk Motors in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 September 2023 at 06:00 UTC.
Form
Jeonbuk Motors (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Jeonbuk Motors's home record at Jeonju World Cup Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeonju World Cup Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Jeonbuk Motors are significantly better at Jeonju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gangwon FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Jeonbuk Motors's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Gangwon FC's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 49% versus Gangwon FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Jeonbuk Motors 39% | Gangwon FC 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.12 xG and Gangwon FC 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.981 / defence 0.728 | Gangwon FC attack 0.701 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.142. Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 62 Jeonbuk Motors games / 62 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 49% | Draw 33% | Gangwon FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.04 | Draw 3.03 | Gangwon FC 5.26. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Gangwon FC's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.71 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 40% | Gangwon FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 49% | Draw 33% | Gangwon FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 30% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.12 / Gangwon FC 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.981 / def 0.728 | Gangwon FC attack 0.701 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Gangwon FC xG
30%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 3 Gangwon FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 49% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 19% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Gangwon FC (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jeonbuk Motors's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Gangwon FC's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.70x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.8%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
49%
2.06
33%
3.06
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.1%
Draw
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
1.71
0.58
Gangwon FC xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.32
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
6%
16.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.1 | 10.6 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.4 | 11.9 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.7%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.58 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Jeonbuk Motors have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 33W 17D 17L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Gangwon FC's form line: 17W 19D 31L from 67 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Jeonbuk Motors are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gangwon FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 1.82 PPG from 34 outings (17W 11D 6L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 7W 11D 16L from 34 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.04 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 33W 17D 17L in their last 67 games (1.73 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 17W 19D 31L in their last 67 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Gangwon FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.82 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-3 on 13 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeonbuk Motors
2
Draws
6
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 2, Gangwon FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 53%, Gangwon FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Jeonbuk Motors and 38% for Gangwon FC.
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 47% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 38% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gangwon FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jeonbuk Motors.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-3 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.12 xG and Gangwon FC 0.58 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gangwon FC outscored their 0.58 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.98 / defence 0.73 against Gangwon FC attack 0.70 / defence 0.85, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 49% | Draw 33% | Gangwon FC 19%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Gangwon FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 39%, Gangwon FC 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Gangwon FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.