Jeonbuk Motors 3-2 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors host Daegu FC at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 16 March 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.42 xG and Daegu FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.153 / defence 1.068 | Daegu FC attack 0.854 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 0.955. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Jeonbuk Motors's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Jeonbuk Motors games / 4 Daegu FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 48% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Daegu FC 4.76. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Mar 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 48% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.42 / Daegu FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.153 / def 1.068 | Daegu FC attack 0.854 / def 1.308 | league avg home 0.939 / away 0.955 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Daegu FC xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC kicked off at 10:00 on Tuesday 16 March 2021 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 3 - 2 Daegu FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 48% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.15x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (4/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
48%
2.08
30%
3.28
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.29
0.87
Daegu FC xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
5%
19.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.87 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, Daegu FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 3-0 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Daegu FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Daegu FC 3-2 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.42 xG and Daegu FC 0.87 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.15 / defence 1.07 against Daegu FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.31, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 48% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 21%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.