Gwangju FC 0-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Daegu FC make the trip to Gwangju Football Stadium to face Gwangju FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 April 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.01 xG and Daegu FC 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.791 / defence 1.122 | Daegu FC attack 0.763 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 0.938 / away 0.963. Gwangju FC's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Gwangju FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Gwangju FC games / 11 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 39% | Draw 32% | Daegu FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Daegu FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gwangju FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.84 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 39% | Draw 32% | Daegu FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Gwangju FC 1.01 / Daegu FC 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.791 / def 1.122 | Daegu FC attack 0.763 / def 1.364 | league avg home 0.938 / away 0.963 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Daegu FC xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 24 April 2021 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Gwangju FC 0 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 39% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Gwangju FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gwangju FC and Daegu FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gwangju FC's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.76x) against Gwangju FC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
39%
2.57
32%
3.10
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
1.84
0.82
Daegu FC xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
10%
9.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.7%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 0.82 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Daegu FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gwangju FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gwangju FC
4
Draws
4
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Daegu FC 1-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Daegu FC defy the odds to beat Gwangju FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Gwangju FC 0-1 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.01 xG and Daegu FC 0.82 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gwangju FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.12 against Daegu FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.36, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 39% | Draw 32% | Daegu FC 29%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.