Gwangju FC 1-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Daegu FC make the trip to Gwangju Football Stadium to face Gwangju FC in K League 1, Relegation Round - 1. The match kicks off on Friday 18 October 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Gwangju FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Gwangju FC's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Gwangju Football Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Daegu FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Daegu FC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Gwangju FC against 1.50 for Daegu FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gwangju FC lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 1–0 with Gwangju FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Gwangju FC half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 42% versus Daegu FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 38% | Daegu FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.14 xG and Daegu FC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.923 / defence 1.014 | Daegu FC attack 1.017 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.234. Data: 66 Gwangju FC games / 66 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 33% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Daegu FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Gwangju FC 30% | Daegu FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 33% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Gwangju FC 1.14 / Daegu FC 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.923 / def 1.014 | Daegu FC attack 1.017 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Daegu FC xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Gwangju FC 1 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 33% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gwangju FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Daegu FC?
Record (5 meetings): Gwangju FC 1W | Draws 2 | Daegu FC 2W.
What form are Gwangju FC and Daegu FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gwangju FC's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (1.02x) against Gwangju FC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
33%
3.02
27%
3.64
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.42
1.27
Daegu FC xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.27 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gwangju FC come into this having played 71 games, going 30W 12D 29L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Daegu FC sit at 1.28 PPG from 71 outings (22W 25D 24L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Gwangju FC against 1.28 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gwangju FC's home form reads 18W 4D 13L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Daegu FC have taken 1.11 points per game from 35 outings (10W 9D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gwangju FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.15 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 71 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 30W 12D 29L in their last 71 games (1.44 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 22W 25D 24L in their last 71 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.66 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Daegu FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gwangju FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gwangju FC
4
Draws
4
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Daegu FC 1-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 34%, Daegu FC 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Gwangju FC) and 43% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 37% of games; Daegu FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 49% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 43% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gwangju FC and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gwangju Football Stadium, Relegation Round - 1, as Gwangju FC and Daegu FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.14 xG and Daegu FC 1.27 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.01 against Daegu FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.85, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 33% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 39%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 38%, Daegu FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Daegu FC's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.44 PPG, Daegu FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.