Gwangju FC 1-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Daegu FC make the trip to Gwangju Football Stadium to face Gwangju FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 July 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gwangju FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gwangju FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gwangju FC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Gwangju Football Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gwangju Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Daegu FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daegu FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Gwangju FC against 1.80 for Daegu FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Gwangju FC half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 36% versus Daegu FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gwangju FC 27% | Daegu FC 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.15 xG and Daegu FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.935 / defence 0.887 | Daegu FC attack 0.906 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.206. Data: 22 Gwangju FC games / 55 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 37% | Draw 34% | Daegu FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Daegu FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gwangju FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Gwangju FC 20% | Daegu FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jul 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 37% | Draw 34% | Daegu FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Gwangju FC 1.15 / Daegu FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.935 / def 0.887 | Daegu FC attack 0.906 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Daegu FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 July 2023 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Gwangju FC 1 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 37% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Gwangju FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gwangju FC and Daegu FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Daegu FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gwangju FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.91x) against Gwangju FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 22/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
37%
2.68
34%
2.90
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.12
0.97
Daegu FC xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 0.97 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gwangju FC come into this having played 22 games, going 8W 6D 8L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. The sample for Gwangju FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Daegu FC sit at 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (8W 8D 6L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Gwangju FC against 1.45 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gwangju FC's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Daegu FC have taken 1.36 points per game from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Daegu FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Blended
Daegu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 8W 6D 8L in their last 22 games (1.36 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 8W 8D 6L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.55 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Daegu FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gwangju FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gwangju FC
4
Draws
4
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Daegu FC 1-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 18% (Gwangju FC) and 46% (Daegu FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Gwangju FC and 36% for Daegu FC.
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Daegu FC in 36%; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 54% of games; Daegu FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 46% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 36% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gwangju FC and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC and Daegu FC finished level at 1-1 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.15 xG and Daegu FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.89 against Daegu FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.91, drawn from 22/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 37% | Draw 34% | Daegu FC 28%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 27%, Daegu FC 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Daegu FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.36 PPG, Daegu FC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.