Gangwon FC 0-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC meet at Chuncheon Songam Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 May 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.49 xG and Suwon City FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.028 / defence 1.128 | Suwon City FC attack 0.816 / defence 1.506. League average goals — home 0.965 / away 1.074. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.506 — this is suppressing Gangwon FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Gangwon FC games / 15 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 47% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Suwon City FC 4.35. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 47% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Gangwon FC 1.49 / Suwon City FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.028 / def 1.128 | Suwon City FC attack 0.816 / def 1.506 | league avg home 0.965 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Suwon City FC xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 15 May 2021 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Gangwon FC 0 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 47% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (1.03) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.82x) against Gangwon FC's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.42
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.48
0.99
Suwon City FC xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
5%
19.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 0.99 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 4-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
3
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Gangwon FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC finished level at 0-0 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.49 xG and Suwon City FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gangwon FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Suwon City FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.13 against Suwon City FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.51, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 47% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 23%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.