FC Seoul 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Seoul host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 25 August 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Seoul, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Seoul's home record at Seoul World Cup Stadium: 1W 3D 6L from 10 K League 1 appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ulsan Hyundai FC — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Seoul 46% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Seoul 42% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 0.84 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 0.724 / defence 1.174 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.906 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 0.998 / away 1.114. FC Seoul's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 FC Seoul games / 25 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 26% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Seoul 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Aug 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 26% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG FC Seoul 0.84 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 0.724 / def 1.174 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.906 / def 1.163 | league avg home 0.998 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 25 August 2021 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
FC Seoul 1 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 26% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Seoul's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
26%
3.83
30%
3.33
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.02
1.18
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
8%
12.53
19%
5.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 15.6 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.18 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Seoul's recent record stands at 6W 7D 11L from 24 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Seoul is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 3L across 24 games — 1.88 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Seoul heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Seoul have managed 3W 3D 6L from 12 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 5W 5D 2L across 12 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Seoul are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
FC Seoul have gone 6W 7D 11L in their last 24 games (1.04 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 12W 9D 3L in their last 24 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Seoul at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Seoul at home: 1.00 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.67 PPG.
Have FC Seoul or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Seoul have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2026, when FC Seoul won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Seoul
4
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FC Seoul 1-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Seoul 33%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Seoul) and 50% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 42%; FC Seoul have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Seoul play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of FC Seoul's recent matches and 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Seoul vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Seoul's recent games and 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Seoul and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
FC Seoul have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out FC Seoul 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat FC Seoul 1-2 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 0.84 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.72 / defence 1.17 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.16, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 26% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Seoul 42%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Seoul's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Seoul (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.