FC Seoul 0-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Seoul vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Seoul host Daegu FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.42 xG and Daegu FC 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 0.957 / defence 1.176 | Daegu FC attack 0.733 / defence 1.436. League average goals — home 1.031 / away 0.995. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.436 — this is suppressing FC Seoul's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 FC Seoul games / 9 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 47% | Draw 32% | Daegu FC 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Daegu FC 5.00. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 47% | Draw 32% | Daegu FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG FC Seoul 1.42 / Daegu FC 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 0.957 / def 1.176 | Daegu FC attack 0.733 / def 1.436 | league avg home 1.031 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Daegu FC xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Daegu FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Daegu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 17 April 2021 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
FC Seoul 0 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Daegu FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 47% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC Seoul and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Seoul and Daegu FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Seoul's attack at 0.96x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
47%
2.11
32%
3.08
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.27
0.86
Daegu FC xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
5%
20.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for FC Seoul and 0.86 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Seoul and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Seoul
4
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 3, Daegu FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2025, when FC Seoul 2-2 Daegu FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Daegu FC defy the odds to beat FC Seoul 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat FC Seoul 0-1 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.42 xG and Daegu FC 0.86 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Seoul fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Daegu FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.44, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 47% | Draw 32% | Daegu FC 20%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Daegu FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.