FC Anyang 1-1 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Seoul make the trip to Anyang Stadium to face FC Anyang in K League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Tuesday 6 May 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Seoul (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Seoul's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC Anyang, 1 for FC Seoul and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with FC Seoul winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 0.99 xG and FC Seoul 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.032 / defence 1.146 | FC Seoul attack 0.705 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.020. FC Seoul's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 12 FC Anyang games / 44 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 38% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | FC Seoul 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — FC Seoul's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Anyang if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 May 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 38% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG FC Anyang 0.99 / FC Seoul 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 1.032 / def 1.146 | FC Seoul attack 0.705 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
0.82
FC Seoul xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs FC Seoul kick off?
FC Anyang vs FC Seoul kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 6 May 2025 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs FC Seoul?
FC Anyang 1 - 1 FC Seoul.
Where is FC Anyang vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs FC Seoul part of?
FC Anyang vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 38% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both FC Anyang and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and FC Seoul?
Record (1 meetings): FC Anyang 0W | Draws 0 | FC Seoul 1W.
What form are FC Anyang and FC Seoul in?
FC Seoul (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. FC Seoul away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Anyang's attack at 1.03x the league average against FC Seoul's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Seoul's attack (0.70x) against FC Anyang's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 12/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
38%
2.62
33%
3.07
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
1.81
0.82
FC Seoul xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 13.5 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for FC Anyang and 0.82 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
FC Seoul
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since February 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won 0-7 on 22 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Anyang have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Anyang
3
Draws
2
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and FC Seoul?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 1, FC Seoul have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when FC Anyang 0-7 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
FC Anyang and FC Seoul share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang and FC Seoul finished level at 1-1 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 0.99 xG and FC Seoul 0.82 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 1.03 / defence 1.15 against FC Seoul attack 0.70 / defence 0.79, drawn from 12/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 38% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 29%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.