Daejeon Citizen 0-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 44%, yet in-form Daejeon Citizen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Jeju United FC travel to Daejeon World Cup Stadium to take on Daejeon Citizen. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 April 2026, 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Daejeon Citizen — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Daejeon Citizen have posted 6W 3D 1L at Daejeon World Cup Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeju United FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Jeju United FC have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Daejeon Citizen have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, Jeju United FC 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 3–1 with Daejeon Citizen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Daejeon Citizen trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 59% versus Jeju United FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 50% | Jeju United FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 0.98 xG and Jeju United FC 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.842 / defence 1.082 | Jeju United FC attack 1.094 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.176. Data: 41 Daejeon Citizen games / 41 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 24% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Jeju United FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daejeon Citizen (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Daejeon Citizen 70% | Jeju United FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Apr 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 24% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Daejeon Citizen 0.98 / Jeju United FC 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.842 / def 1.082 | Jeju United FC attack 1.094 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Jeju United FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 10:30 on Wednesday 22 April 2026 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC?
Daejeon Citizen 0 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 24% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC?
Record (7 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 3W | Draws 1 | Jeju United FC 3W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Daejeon Citizen's attack at 0.84x the league average against Jeju United FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Daejeon Citizen's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
24%
4.21
33%
3.06
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.38
1.39
Jeju United FC xG
4.21
24%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
6%
16.94
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.9 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.39 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Daejeon Citizen's recent record stands at 30W 23D 23L from 76 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 38L across 76 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daejeon Citizen on 1.49 PPG, Jeju United FC on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Daejeon Citizen have managed 18W 10D 10L from 38 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 9W 7D 22L across 38 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daejeon Citizen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.01 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 30W 23D 23L in their last 76 games (1.49 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 26W 12D 38L in their last 76 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Jeju United FC away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.68 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Daejeon Citizen's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daejeon Citizen
2
Draws
5
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 3-1 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daejeon Citizen see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 53%, Jeju United FC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Daejeon Citizen) and 50% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 29% of games; Jeju United FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 55% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 50% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Jeju United FC edge out Daejeon Citizen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Daejeon Citizen 0-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 0.98 xG and Jeju United FC 1.39 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Daejeon Citizen fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against Jeju United FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 24% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 44%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 50%, Jeju United FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.49 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.