Daejeon Citizen 2-1 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Daejeon World Cup Stadium plays host to Daejeon Citizen versus FC Anyang in K League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 08:30 UTC.
Current Form
Daejeon Citizen's overall K League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Daejeon Citizen at Daejeon World Cup Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Daejeon World Cup Stadium this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.07 xG and FC Anyang 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.789 / defence 0.990 | FC Anyang attack 0.886 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.040. Daejeon Citizen's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Daejeon Citizen games / 11 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 31% | FC Anyang 30%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | FC Anyang 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 31% | FC Anyang 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.07 / FC Anyang 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.789 / def 0.990 | FC Anyang attack 0.886 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
0.91
FC Anyang xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Daejeon Citizen 2 - 1 FC Anyang.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 39% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Daejeon Citizen home split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (0.79) and FC Anyang's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Anyang's attack (0.89x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 44/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
39%
2.58
31%
3.24
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
1.98
0.91
FC Anyang xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 0.91 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Pre-Season
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 9 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Daejeon Citizen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Anyang — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Daejeon Citizen
2
Draws
1
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang?
From 6 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, FC Anyang have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 3-2 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and FC Anyang?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Daejeon Citizen edge out FC Anyang 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat FC Anyang 2-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.07 xG and FC Anyang 0.91 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.79 / defence 0.99 against FC Anyang attack 0.89 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 31% | FC Anyang 30%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.