Daegu FC 2-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 36%, yet in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC make the trip to DGB Arena to face Daegu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Daegu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daegu FC at DGB Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Arena. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Daegu FC are significantly better at DGB Arena than their overall form suggests.
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Ulsan Hyundai FC arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 57% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 46% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.20 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.057 / defence 1.117 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.938 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 0.980 / away 1.127. Data: 28 Daegu FC games / 28 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 36% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Daegu FC are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 36% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Daegu FC 1.20 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.057 / def 1.117 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.938 / def 1.158 | league avg home 0.980 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daegu FC 2 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 36% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Daegu FC's attack at 1.06x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (0.94x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
36%
2.77
29%
3.47
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.38
1.18
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
11%
9.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.18 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Daegu FC's recent record stands at 11W 8D 9L from 28 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 3L across 28 games — 1.96 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daegu FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Daegu FC have managed 6W 5D 2L from 13 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 6W 5D 2L across 13 trips, a 1.77 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daegu FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.64 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 11W 8D 9L in their last 28 games (1.46 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 15W 10D 3L in their last 28 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.77 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Daegu FC
4
Draws
6
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 0, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 62%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Daegu FC) and 54% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Daegu FC's games and 54% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Daegu FC's recent games and 54% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Daegu FC edge out Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 at DGB Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.20 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.12 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 36% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 35%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 46%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.46. Form was overturned, with Daegu FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.