Daegu FC 1-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Daegu FC and Jeju United FC meet at DGB Daegu Bank Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Daegu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 5D 2L at DGB Daegu Bank Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jeju United FC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Daegu FC's favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Daegu FC, 0 for Jeju United FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2023, ended 2–1 with Daegu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (65 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (65 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 58% versus Jeju United FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 48% | Jeju United FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.36 xG and Jeju United FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.858 / defence 0.889 | Jeju United FC attack 1.021 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.175. Data: 60 Daegu FC games / 60 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 42% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Jeju United FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 50% | Jeju United FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 42% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Daegu FC 1.36 / Jeju United FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.858 / def 0.889 | Jeju United FC attack 1.021 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Jeju United FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 0 Jeju United FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 42% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Daegu FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
Record (1 meetings): Daegu FC 1W | Draws 0 | Jeju United FC 0W.
What form are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (0.86) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (1.02x) against Daegu FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
42%
2.36
29%
3.41
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.42
1.07
Jeju United FC xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
7%
13.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.07 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Daegu FC's recent record stands at 18W 27D 20L from 65 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 25L across 65 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.32 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Daegu FC have managed 12W 12D 7L from 31 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 12W 5D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Daegu FC are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.35 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 65 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 18W 27D 20L in their last 65 games (1.25 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 23W 17D 25L in their last 65 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.55 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 0-4 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Daegu FC
3
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Jeju United FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 48%, Jeju United FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Daegu FC) and 58% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 58% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Daegu FC's recent games and 58% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Daegu FC edge out Jeju United FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Jeju United FC 1-0 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.36 xG and Jeju United FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jeju United FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.89 against Jeju United FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.13, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 42% | Draw 29% | Jeju United FC 28%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 48%, Jeju United FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.25 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.