Daegu FC 3-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Daegu FC welcome Gangwon FC to DGB Daegu Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Daegu FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gangwon FC have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Daegu FC) versus 1.30 (Gangwon FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 53% versus Gangwon FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 45% | Gangwon FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.46 xG and Gangwon FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.136 / defence 0.947 | Gangwon FC attack 0.949 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.135. Data: 46 Daegu FC games / 46 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 47% | Draw 26% | Gangwon FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Gangwon FC 3.85. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 60% | Gangwon FC 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 47% | Draw 26% | Gangwon FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Daegu FC 1.46 / Gangwon FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.136 / def 0.947 | Gangwon FC attack 0.949 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Gangwon FC xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Daegu FC 3 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 47% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Daegu FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Gangwon FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (1.14) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.80
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.48
1.02
Gangwon FC xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
6%
16.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.02 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 15W 10D 13L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Gangwon FC's form line: 11W 13D 14L from 38 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.45 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 3W 5D 11L from 19 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gangwon FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Daegu FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Daegu FC
4
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 2, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Daegu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 53%, Gangwon FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Daegu FC) and 42% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Daegu FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Gangwon FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 53% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Daegu FC's recent games and 42% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Daegu FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gangwon FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Gangwon FC 3-0 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.46 xG and Gangwon FC 1.02 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gangwon FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.95 against Gangwon FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 47% | Draw 26% | Gangwon FC 26%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Gangwon FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.45 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.