Daegu FC 2-1 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Daegu FC welcome Gangwon FC to DGB Daegu Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Daegu FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gangwon FC have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Daegu FC) versus 1.40 (Gangwon FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Daegu FC, 3 for Gangwon FC and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 54% versus Gangwon FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 45% | Gangwon FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.40 xG and Gangwon FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.075 / defence 1.018 | Gangwon FC attack 0.993 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.188. Data: 33 Daegu FC games / 33 Gangwon FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 41% | Draw 26% | Gangwon FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Gangwon FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 70% | Gangwon FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 41% | Draw 26% | Gangwon FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Daegu FC 1.40 / Gangwon FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.075 / def 1.018 | Gangwon FC attack 0.993 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Gangwon FC xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Daegu FC 2 - 1 Gangwon FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 41% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Daegu FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gangwon FC?
Record (7 meetings): Daegu FC 1W | Draws 3 | Gangwon FC 3W.
What form are Daegu FC and Gangwon FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Daegu FC's attack rating (1.07) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
41%
2.41
26%
3.81
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.60
1.20
Gangwon FC xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.20 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 78 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 23W 27D 28L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Gangwon FC's form line: 26W 24D 28L from 78 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.23 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.44 PPG from 39 outings (13W 17D 9L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 10W 11D 18L from 39 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Daegu FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.21 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 78 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 23W 27D 28L in their last 78 games (1.23 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 26W 24D 28L in their last 78 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Daegu FC
4
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 2, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Daegu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 56%, Gangwon FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Daegu FC) and 36% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 46% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Daegu FC's recent games and 36% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Daegu FC edge out Gangwon FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Gangwon FC 2-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.40 xG and Gangwon FC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.02 against Gangwon FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 41% | Draw 26% | Gangwon FC 32%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Gangwon FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.23 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.