Damac 1-0 Al-Qadisiyah FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Damac vs Al-Qadisiyah FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Damac welcome Al-Qadisiyah FC to Dhamak Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Damac stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Damac's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Damac are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Al-Qadisiyah FC — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.30 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Damac's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Damac's games and 60% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's (from Damac's last 10 home games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Damac, 1 for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2024, ended Damac 1–2 Al-Qadisiyah FC — a Al-Qadisiyah FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Damac trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 58% versus Al-Qadisiyah FC 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 62% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.27 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.885 / defence 1.182 | Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.127 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.310. Data: built from Damac's last 58 games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 24.

Result probabilities: Damac 28% | Draw 23% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Damac 3.57 | Draw 4.26 | Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.06. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Damac's last 10 home games and Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Damac 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% (last 10 away games).

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