Damac 0-0 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Kholood at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Al Kholood travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium to take on Damac. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 3 February 2026, 15:40 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Damac have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Kholood — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Damac 0.70 PPG, Al Kholood 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Damac, 1 for Al Kholood and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Al Kholood winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Damac in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al Kholood in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 58% versus Al Kholood 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 50% | Al Kholood 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.09 xG and Al Kholood 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.717 / defence 0.970 | Al Kholood attack 1.304 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.395. Damac's attack strength of 0.717 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al Kholood have an above-average attack strength of 1.304 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Damac games / 52 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 22% | Draw 25% | Al Kholood 52%. Fair-value odds: Damac 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Al Kholood 1.92. Al Kholood hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Kholood as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Kholood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 60% | Al Kholood 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 Feb 2026, 15:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 22% | Draw 25% | Al Kholood 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Damac 1.09 / Al Kholood 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.717 / def 0.970 | Al Kholood attack 1.304 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Al Kholood xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Kholood kick off?
Damac vs Al Kholood kicked off at 15:40 on Tuesday 3 February 2026 at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Kholood?
Damac 0 - 0 Al Kholood.
Where is Damac vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Kholood part of?
Damac vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 22% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Damac and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Kholood?
Record (3 meetings): Damac 2W | Draws 0 | Al Kholood 1W.
What form are Damac and Al Kholood in?
Damac (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Al Kholood (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Damac's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
22%
4.46
25%
3.96
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Damac xG
Total xG
2.85
1.76
Al Kholood xG
4.46
22%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
17%
5.83
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
4%
25.99
18%
5.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Damac and 1.76 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Damac's recent record stands at 10W 16D 26L from 52 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Kholood, meanwhile, have gone 17W 4D 31L across 52 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 0.88 PPG, Al Kholood on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Damac have managed 6W 8D 11L from 25 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Kholood's away record stands at 7W 2D 16L across 25 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.29 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 10W 16D 26L in their last 52 games (0.88 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 17W 4D 31L in their last 52 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Kholood away?
Damac's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.04 PPG; Al Kholood away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Damac and Al Kholood runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Damac's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Damac
1
Draws
1
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Kholood?
From 4 meetings on record, Damac have won 2, Al Kholood have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Damac 0-0 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Kholood?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 60%, Al Kholood 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Damac) and 60% (Al Kholood). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 28% of games; Al Kholood in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Damac's games and 60% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Damac's matches and 60% of Al Kholood's.
Do Damac and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Damac's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Damac and Al Kholood drew 0-0 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.09 xG and Al Kholood 1.76 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Damac fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al Kholood landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.72 / defence 0.97 against Al Kholood attack 1.30 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 22% | Draw 25% | Al Kholood 52%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 50%, Al Kholood 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Kholood's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 0.88 PPG, Al Kholood 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.