Al Wehda Club 3-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Al Wehda Club welcome Al Shabab to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Wehda Club have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Wehda Club at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Al Shabab — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al Wehda Club) versus 1.30 (Al Shabab). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Wehda Club, 0 for Al Shabab and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Al Wehda Club winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 42% versus Al Shabab 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 36% | Al Shabab 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.33 xG and Al Shabab 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.890 / defence 1.126 | Al Shabab attack 1.140 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.399. Data: 31 Al Wehda Club games / 31 Al Shabab games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 28% | Draw 23% | Al Shabab 48%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Al Shabab 2.08. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 50% | Al Shabab 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 28% | Draw 23% | Al Shabab 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.33 / Al Shabab 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.890 / def 1.126 | Al Shabab attack 1.140 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Al Shabab xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 August 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab?
Al Wehda Club 3 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 28% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab?
Record (2 meetings): Al Wehda Club 2W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 0W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Wehda Club's attack at 0.89x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
28%
3.52
23%
4.33
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
3.12
1.79
Al Shabab xG
3.52
28%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
17%
6.02
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
5%
21.18
13%
7.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 1.79 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Al Wehda Club have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 8W 8D 15L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Shabab's form line: 17W 6D 8L from 31 games, 1.84 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Wehda Club.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Wehda Club have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 7W 3D 5L from 15 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wehda Club are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.87 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Early Season
Al Shabab
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 8W 8D 15L in their last 31 games (1.03 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 17W 6D 8L in their last 31 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.13 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Al Wehda Club or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al Shabab have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Wehda Club
0
Draws
3
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 3, Al Shabab have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-3 Al Shabab.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 47%, Al Shabab 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al Wehda Club) and 73% (Al Shabab). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wehda Club have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Al Wehda Club's games and 80% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 73% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wehda Club cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Shabab.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club beat Al Shabab 3-1 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.33 xG and Al Shabab 1.79 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Wehda Club beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.89 / defence 1.13 against Al Shabab attack 1.14 / defence 1.06, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 28% | Draw 23% | Al Shabab 48%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Al Wehda Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 36%, Al Shabab 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Al Wehda Club winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.