Al Wehda Club 1-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh meet at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 17:25 UTC.
Form
Al Wehda Club (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al Wehda Club's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium this season.
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Al-Fateh's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Al Wehda Club against 2.00 for Al-Fateh. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Wehda Club register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Fateh in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Wehda Club lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Al Wehda Club winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Wehda Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al-Fateh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wehda Club 59% and Al-Fateh 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 61% | Al-Fateh 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.86 xG and Al-Fateh 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.962 / defence 1.387 | Al-Fateh attack 1.144 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.421. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Al Wehda Club's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Al Wehda Club games / 64 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 32% | Draw 20% | Al-Fateh 47%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 3.12 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Fateh 2.13. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 76% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 70% | Al-Fateh 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 17:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 32% | Draw 20% | Al-Fateh 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 76% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.86 / Al-Fateh 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.962 / def 1.387 | Al-Fateh attack 1.144 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
2.25
Al-Fateh xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:25 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh?
Al Wehda Club 1 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 32% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 47% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh?
Record (5 meetings): Al Wehda Club 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 3W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Wehda Club's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (1.14x) against Al Wehda Club's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 2.25.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 7.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
32%
3.09
20%
4.93
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
4.11
2.25
Al-Fateh xG
3.09
32%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.10
Clean Sheet
11%
9.52
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
3%
29.42
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 2.25 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Wehda Club's recent record stands at 18W 11D 35L from 64 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 28L across 64 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Al Wehda Club against 1.22 for Al-Fateh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Wehda Club have managed 9W 7D 16L from 32 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 9W 7D 16L across 32 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.52 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 75%.
Last 64 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 18W 11D 35L in their last 64 games (1.02 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 21W 15D 28L in their last 64 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Wehda Club's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.06 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al Wehda Club have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Fateh won 5-1 on 30 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wehda Club have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al Wehda Club
1
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Al Wehda Club, 78% for Al-Fateh — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Al Wehda Club and 75% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Al Wehda Club's games and 78% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 75% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Wehda Club defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wehda Club beat Al-Fateh 1-0 at Prince Abdullah Al Faisal Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.86 xG and Al-Fateh 2.25 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Wehda Club fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al-Fateh landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.96 / defence 1.39 against Al-Fateh attack 1.14 / defence 1.25, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 32% | Draw 20% | Al-Fateh 47%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Al Wehda Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 61%, Al-Fateh 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wehda Club 1.02 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wehda Club win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.