Al Taee 2-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taee at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq meet at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Al Taee (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Al Taee have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Al Taee are significantly better at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ettifaq are 0.80 PPG clear of Al Taee in recent Pro League fixtures (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Al Taee have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Al-Ettifaq in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Al Taee, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Al-Ettifaq — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Al Taee winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Taee and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al Taee half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taee 44% versus Al-Ettifaq 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taee 58% | Al-Ettifaq 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taee 1.31 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taee attack 1.029 / defence 1.056 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.726 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.181. Data: 46 Al Taee games / 45 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taee 46% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 26%. Fair-value odds: Al Taee 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ettifaq 3.85. Al Taee hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Al Taee dominate the H2H record, yet Al-Ettifaq are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Al Taee are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Ettifaq (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taee if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taee 30% | Al-Ettifaq 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taee 46% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Al Taee 1.31 / Al-Ettifaq 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taee attack 1.029 / def 1.056 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.726 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Al Taee (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Al Taee xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al-Ettifaq xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 10 February 2023 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Taee 2 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium.
What competition is Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Taee a 46% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Taee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taee 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Taee (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Taee's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.73x) against Al Taee's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taee Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.54
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Al Taee xG
Total xG
2.21
0.91
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
7%
14.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al Taee and 0.91 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taee's recent record stands at 17W 4D 24L from 45 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 18L across 45 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Al Taee against 1.18 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Taee have managed 11W 3D 8L from 22 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Al Taee are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 5W 8D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taee come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taee are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.22 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taee
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Taee have gone 17W 4D 24L in their last 45 games (1.22 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 13W 14D 18L in their last 45 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taee at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Taee's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taee at home: 1.64 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Al Taee or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taee have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taee have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al Taee
1
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taee have won 4, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when Al Taee 1-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taee 54%, Al-Ettifaq 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Al Taee) and 46% (Al-Ettifaq). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taee keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 36%; Al-Ettifaq in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taee home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taee play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al Taee's recent matches and 36% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taee vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al Taee's matches and 46% of Al-Ettifaq's.
Do Al Taee and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Taee have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taee cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Ettifaq 2-0 at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taee 1.31 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.91 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taee attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.73 / defence 0.91, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taee 46% | Draw 28% | Al-Ettifaq 26%, with Al Taee to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taee 58%, Al-Ettifaq 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taee's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taee 1.22 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taee win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taee (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.