Al Taawon 2-1 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al Taee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to Al Taawon Club Stadium to face Al Taawon in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Monday 22 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Al Taawon Club Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Taee's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taee have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Al Taawon, 1.30 for Al Taee — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Taawon register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al Taee in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Taawon lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2023, ended 3–1 with Al Taawon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 70% versus Al Taee 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 51% | Al Taee 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.85 xG and Al Taee 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.965 / defence 1.053 | Al Taee attack 1.191 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.258. Al Taee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Al Taawon games / 57 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 45% | Draw 22% | Al Taee 33%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.22 | Draw 4.55 | Al Taee 3.03. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 80% | Al Taee 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Al Taawon Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 22 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 45% | Draw 22% | Al Taee 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Taawon 1.85 / Al Taee 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.965 / def 1.053 | Al Taee attack 1.191 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Al Taee xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Taee kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Taee kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 22 May 2023 at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Taee?
Al Taawon 2 - 1 Al Taee.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Taee part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 45% chance of winning, Al Taee a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Taee?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taawon 1W | Draws 1 | Al Taee 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Taee in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Al Taee (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (0.96) and Al Taee's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (1.19x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
45%
2.24
22%
4.48
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.43
1.58
Al Taee xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
5%
19.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.58 for Al Taee, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 20W 20D 17L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taee's form line: 21W 8D 28L from 57 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Al Taawon against 1.25 for Al Taee. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.32 PPG from 28 outings (9W 10D 9L).
On the road, Al Taee have gone 7W 4D 17L from 28 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.26 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 20W 20D 17L in their last 57 games (1.40 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 21W 8D 28L in their last 57 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Taee away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.32 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Al Taawon have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al Taawon
1
Draws
1
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 4, Al Taee have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2024, when Al Taee 2-3 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Taee?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 68%, Al Taee 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al Taawon) and 54% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al Taee in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Taee?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Al Taawon's games and 43% of Al Taee's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al Taawon's recent games and 54% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Taawon edge out Al Taee 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon beat Al Taee 2-1 at Al Taawon Club Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.85 xG and Al Taee 1.58 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Al Taee attack 1.19 / defence 1.33, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 45% | Draw 22% | Al Taee 33%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 51%, Al Taee 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taee's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.40 PPG, Al Taee 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Taawon win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.