Al Taawon 2-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Taawon at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Raed encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Al Taawon welcome Al-Raed to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 7). Kick-off is Thursday 21 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al Taawon — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Al Taawon have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Raed stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Al-Raed have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Al Taawon carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Al Taawon have won 3, Al-Raed 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 May 2023, ended Al Taawon 2–1 Al-Raed — a Al Taawon win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Al-Raed in-play and half-time data (last 36 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 64% versus Al-Raed 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 50% | Al-Raed 69%). Note also that Al-Raed surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Al Taawon recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.62 xG and Al-Raed 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.244 / defence 0.860 | Al-Raed attack 0.756 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.439. Al-Raed's attack rating of 0.756 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 36 games and Al-Raed's last 36.

Result probabilities: Al Taawon 54% | Draw 25% | Al-Raed 22%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.87 | Draw 4.04 | Al-Raed 4.61. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 80% (last 10 home games) | Al-Raed 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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