Al Taawon 1-4 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Al Taawon welcome Al-Nassr to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 30 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al Taawon have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al Taawon are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Nassr — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Nassr away from home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Nassr — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Al Taawon's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Al Taawon have won 2, Al-Nassr 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended Al Taawon 2–0 Al-Nassr — a Al Taawon win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al Taawon trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Al-Nassr trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 65% versus Al-Nassr 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 52% | Al-Nassr 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.46 xG and Al-Nassr 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.045 / defence 0.993 | Al-Nassr attack 1.535 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.386. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack rating of 1.535, which lifts their away xG to 2.11. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 48 games and Al-Nassr's last 48.
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 26% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 52%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 3.83 | Draw 4.62 | Al-Nassr 1.91. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.46 / 2.11) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al Taawon's last 10 home games and Al-Nassr's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Nassr 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, matchday 19 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 26% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Al Taawon 1.46 / Al-Nassr 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.045 / def 0.993 | Al-Nassr attack 1.535 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Al-Nassr xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr FAQs
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 30 December 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Al Taawon 1 - 4 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr is a Pro League fixture (matchday 19) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 26% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Nassr will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 1.04x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 2.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Taawon's last 48 games and Al-Nassr's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
26%
3.83
22%
4.62
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
3.57
2.11
Al-Nassr xG
3.83
26%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
12%
8.28
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
3%
31.74
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al Taawon and 2.11 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 26W 11D 11L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Al-Nassr's form line: 34W 8D 6L from 48 games, 2.29 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.75 PPG from their last 24 home games (12W 6D 6L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 15W 4D 5L from their last 24 away games — 2.04 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.38 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al Taawon (Home) vs Al-Nassr (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr Form FAQs
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 26W 11D 11L in their last 48 games (1.85 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 34W 8D 6L in their last 48 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.75 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from January 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Aug 2025, when Al-Nassr won Al Taawon 0-5 Al-Nassr.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Taawon
2
Draws
6
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Nassr?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Taawon have won 2, Al-Nassr have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Nassr last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Al-Nassr 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 71%, Al-Nassr 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Al Taawon and 67% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Taawon and Al-Nassr matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Al Taawon's games and 42% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Taawon and Al-Nassr matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al Taawon's matches and 67% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Nassr matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 71% of Al-Nassr's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Taawon 1-4 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.46 xG and Al-Nassr 2.11 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 2.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against Al-Nassr attack 1.53 / defence 0.93, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 26% | Draw 22% | Al-Nassr 52%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 52%, Al-Nassr 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.85. Form held, and they took the win. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.