Al Taawon 2-2 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Taawon (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Taawon face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Hazm to Al Taawon Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 22 January 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Taawon Arena, Al Taawon have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Al-Hazm — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's away record: 3W 3D 2L from 8 road trips in Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al Taawon are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al Taawon: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Al-Hazm, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 4–0 with Al Taawon winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Taawon and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al Taawon trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Al-Hazm trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 53% versus Al-Hazm 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 53% | Al-Hazm 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.86 xG and Al-Hazm 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.150 / defence 0.789 | Al-Hazm attack 0.765 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.475. Al Taawon's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Al Taawon games / 15 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 60% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 17%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Hazm 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 50% | Al-Hazm 62% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Jan 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 60% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Al Taawon 1.86 / Al-Hazm 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.150 / def 0.789 | Al-Hazm attack 0.765 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al-Hazm xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm kicked off at 15:15 on Thursday 22 January 2026 at Al Taawon Arena.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Al Taawon 2 - 2 Al-Hazm.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 60% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm?
Record (4 meetings): Al Taawon 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hazm in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Taawon's attack rating (1.15) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.31
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.75
0.89
Al-Hazm xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
3%
37.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.89 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 2.27 PPG on a 11W 1D 3L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 4W 4D 7L from 15 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Taawon are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 2.29 PPG from 7 outings (5W 1D 1L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.07 PPG overall record — Al-Hazm travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 11W 1D 3L in their last 15 games (2.27 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al Taawon's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 2.29 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Mar 2024, when Al Taawon won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Taawon
2
Draws
1
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 3, Al-Hazm have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 2-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Hazm?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 43%, Al-Hazm 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Al Taawon) and 71% (Al-Hazm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Hazm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 57% of Al-Hazm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Al Taawon's matches and 71% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Al-Hazm share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 17, as Al Taawon and Al-Hazm drew 2-2 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.86 xG and Al-Hazm 0.89 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Hazm outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.15 / defence 0.79 against Al-Hazm attack 0.77 / defence 1.06, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 60% | Draw 23% | Al-Hazm 17%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 53%, Al-Hazm 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Hazm's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.