Al Taawon 2-3 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Fayha meet at Al Taawon Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Taawon have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon at Al Taawon Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al Taawon are significantly better at Al Taawon Arena than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Al Taawon, 1.10 for Al-Fayha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Al Taawon have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 8 meetings, with Al-Fayha managing just 0 victories and 4 draws shared.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Al Taawon winning.
The historical record gives Al Taawon a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 46% versus Al-Fayha 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 38% | Al-Fayha 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 2.00 xG and Al-Fayha 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.039 / defence 0.856 | Al-Fayha attack 0.762 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.355. Al-Fayha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Al Taawon games / 55 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 63% | Draw 22% | Al-Fayha 15%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Fayha 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 50% | Al-Fayha 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Al Taawon Arena • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 63% | Draw 22% | Al-Fayha 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 51% | xG Al Taawon 2.00 / Al-Fayha 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.039 / def 0.856 | Al-Fayha attack 0.762 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Al-Fayha xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Al Taawon Arena.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Al Taawon 2 - 3 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawon Arena.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 63% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fayha?
Record (8 meetings): Al Taawon 4W | Draws 4 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fayha in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 1.04x the league average against Al-Fayha's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.76x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
63%
1.59
22%
4.60
15%
6.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.89
0.88
Al-Fayha xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
6.55
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
13%
7.43
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
2%
48.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.88 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 55 games, going 24W 12D 19L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.07 PPG from 55 outings (14W 17D 24L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 13W 8D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.81 points per game from 27 outings (5W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.91 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 24W 12D 19L in their last 55 games (1.53 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 14W 17D 24L in their last 55 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.74 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 25 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 4-1 on 8 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Taawon
5
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2026, when Al Taawon 0-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Fayha?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 48%, Al-Fayha 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Al Taawon) and 63% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 48% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Al Taawon's recent games and 63% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al Taawon 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al Taawon 2-3 at Al Taawon Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 2.00 xG and Al-Fayha 0.88 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.04 / defence 0.86 against Al-Fayha attack 0.76 / defence 1.31, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 63% | Draw 22% | Al-Fayha 15%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Al-Fayha win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 38%, Al-Fayha 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Al-Fayha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.