Al Shabab 3-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al Taee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Thursday 28 October 2021 at 17:50 UTC.
Form
Al Shabab (all games): 4W 3D 2L across 9 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.67 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.78 goals per game, with 1.22 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Taee have collected 0.88 PPG across 8 Pro League outings this season: 2W 1D 5L. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee away from home this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Al Shabab. A 0.79 PPG lead over Al Taee (1.67 vs 0.88) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Al Shabab — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Al Taee — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 50% versus Al Taee 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 50% | Al Taee 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.33 xG and Al Taee 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.197 / defence 1.266 | Al Taee attack 0.676 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.180. Data: 9 Al Shabab games / 8 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 43% | Draw 29% | Al Taee 28%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Al Taee 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Al Shabab 75% | Al Taee 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 17:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 43% | Draw 29% | Al Taee 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Shabab 1.33 / Al Taee 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.197 / def 1.266 | Al Taee attack 0.676 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Al Taee xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Taee kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Taee kicked off at 17:50 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Taee?
Al Shabab 3 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Taee part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 43% chance of winning, Al Taee a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Taee?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Taee in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-3D-2L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Al Taee (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.38 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.20) and Al Taee's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.68x) against Al Shabab's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
43%
2.32
29%
3.42
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.34
1.01
Al Taee xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
7%
13.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.01 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 4W 3D 1L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taee's form line: 2W 1D 5L from 8 games, 0.88 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taee.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L).
On the road, Al Taee have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Shabab are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.00 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 4W 3D 1L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Taee away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Taee away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Taee in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won 4-0 on 8 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Al Shabab
2
Draws
0
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 4, Al Taee have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Al Taee 0-0 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al Taee?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Taee tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 75%, Al Taee 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Al Shabab) and 25% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al Taee in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 25% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Al Shabab's recent games and 25% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Taee 3-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.33 xG and Al Taee 1.01 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Taee landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.20 / defence 1.27 against Al Taee attack 0.68 / defence 0.99, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 43% | Draw 29% | Al Taee 28%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 50%, Al Taee 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Taee's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Shabab (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taee (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.