Al Shabab 1-0 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Al-Nassr travel to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Shabab. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 November 2021, 13:50 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's home record at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium: 3W 2D 0L from 5 Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 4W 1D 3L from 8 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.62 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.25. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Shabab 1.80 PPG, Al-Nassr 1.62 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Shabab register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Nassr in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Al Shabab trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Nassr trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 38% versus Al-Nassr 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 50% | Al-Nassr 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.66 xG and Al-Nassr 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.290 / defence 1.187 | Al-Nassr attack 1.028 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.070. Al Shabab carry an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 10 Al Shabab games / 8 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 46% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Nassr 3.33. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 60% | Al-Nassr 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 13:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 46% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Al Shabab 1.66 / Al-Nassr 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.290 / def 1.187 | Al-Nassr attack 1.028 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al-Nassr xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 13:50 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Al Shabab 1 - 0 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 46% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Nassr?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Nassr in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al Shabab's attack rating (1.29) and Al-Nassr's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
46%
2.20
25%
4.07
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.97
1.31
Al-Nassr xG
2.20
46%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
6%
17.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.31 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Shabab come into this having played 8 games, going 5W 2D 1L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Shabab's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 75%.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 games (2.12 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al Shabab's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 2.33 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Nassr have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2023, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
2
Draws
7
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Nassr have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2026, when Al Shabab 2-4 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Shabab at 67%, Al-Nassr at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al Shabab and 67% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Shabab's games and 100% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al Shabab's matches and 67% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Shabab edge out Al-Nassr 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Nassr 1-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.66 xG and Al-Nassr 1.31 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Nassr landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.29 / defence 1.19 against Al-Nassr attack 1.03 / defence 1.13, drawn from 10/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 46% | Draw 25% | Al-Nassr 30%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 50%, Al-Nassr 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.62. Form held, and they took the win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.