Al Shabab 3-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Shabab face Al-Fateh.

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Fixture Analysis

Al Shabab welcome Al-Fateh to Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 34). Kick-off is Monday 27 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Al Shabab — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Fateh stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Al-Fateh have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Shabab at 1.60 PPG versus Al-Fateh's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Fateh 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2023, ended Al Shabab 1–1 Al-Fateh — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 49% versus Al-Fateh 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 56% | Al-Fateh 64%). Note also that Al-Fateh surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Al Shabab recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.10 xG and Al-Fateh 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.179 / defence 0.971 | Al-Fateh attack 1.068 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.331. Al-Fateh's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Shabab's projected output up. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 63 games and Al-Fateh's last 63.

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 52% | Draw 25% | Al-Fateh 23%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.92 | Draw 4.07 | Al-Fateh 4.30. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.10 / 1.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al-Fateh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fateh 90% (last 10 away games).

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