Al-Raed 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 10 January 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Raed have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Al-Raed have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Raed, 2 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Raed trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 43% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 0.95 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.932 / defence 1.416 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.255 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.149. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Al-Raed games / 42 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 17% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 5.88 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Raed 30% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Jan 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 17% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Raed 0.95 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.932 / def 1.416 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.255 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 16:30 on Tuesday 10 January 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Raed 1 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 17% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 63% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Raed 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.93) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
17%
5.95
21%
4.85
63%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.00
2.04
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
5.95
17%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
1.60
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
13%
7.71
39%
2.60
Win to Nil
2%
45.91
24%
4.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Al-Raed and 2.04 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Al-Raed have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 15W 6D 21L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 27W 11D 4L from 42 games, 2.19 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 0.98 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Raed.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Raed have posted 1.38 PPG from 21 outings (9W 2D 10L).
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 13W 7D 1L from 21 away games — 2.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.00 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 15W 6D 21L in their last 42 games (1.21 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 27W 11D 4L in their last 42 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.38 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al-Raed
1
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2025, when Al-Raed 3-5 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 29%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Al-Raed) and 48% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 43%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 52% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Raed's recent games and 48% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed and Al-Hilal Saudi FC finished level at 1-1 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 0.95 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.04 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.93 / defence 1.42 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.25 / defence 0.76, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 17% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 63%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 50%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.