Al-Raed 2-4 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Al-Fayha travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 January 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Raed — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Raed at 1.30 PPG versus Al-Fayha's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Raed, 1 for Al-Fayha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Al-Raed winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 45% versus Al-Fayha 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Raed 50% | Al-Fayha 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.25 xG and Al-Fayha 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.931 / defence 1.289 | Al-Fayha attack 1.008 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.168. Data: 43 Al-Raed games / 42 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Fayha 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fayha as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Raed 40% | Al-Fayha 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Al-Raed 1.25 / Al-Fayha 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.931 / def 1.289 | Al-Fayha attack 1.008 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Al-Fayha xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Raed 2 - 4 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 31% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Fayha?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
31%
3.19
25%
3.97
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.77
1.52
Al-Fayha xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
7%
14.53
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.52 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 14W 7D 21L from 42 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 11W 14D 17L across 42 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Raed on 1.17 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 8W 3D 10L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 3W 7D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Raed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.79 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 14W 7D 21L in their last 42 games (1.17 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 14D 17L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Raed's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.29 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al-Fayha runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Al-Raed won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
2
Draws
4
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Fayha?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Al-Fayha have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Al-Raed 0-2 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 33%, Al-Fayha 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Al-Raed and 33% for Al-Fayha.
On the defensive side: Al-Raed keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al-Raed have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Fayha in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 52% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Al-Raed's recent games and 33% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al-Raed.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha beat Al-Raed 2-4 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.25 xG and Al-Fayha 1.52 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 1.52 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.93 / defence 1.29 against Al-Fayha attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 31% | Draw 25% | Al-Fayha 43%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 50%, Al-Fayha 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Raed 1.17 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.