Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Al Taawon travel to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 2 for Al Taawon and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Al Taawon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Al Taawon trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 53% versus Al Taawon 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 56% | Al Taawon 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.77 xG and Al Taawon 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.340 / defence 0.633 | Al Taawon attack 0.997 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.385. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.633 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 57 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 58% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Al Taawon 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 40% | Al Taawon 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 58% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.77 / Al Taawon 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.340 / def 0.633 | Al Taawon attack 0.997 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Al Taawon xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 58% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al Taawon 2W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.34) and Al Taawon's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.06
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.65
0.87
Al Taawon xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
3%
33.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.87 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 37W 10D 10L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon's form line: 24W 13D 20L from 57 games, 1.49 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 2.36 PPG from 28 outings (20W 6D 2L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 11W 4D 13L from 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.42 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 37W 10D 10L in their last 57 games (2.12 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 24W 13D 20L in their last 57 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.36 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2025, when Al Taawon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
2
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, Al Taawon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, Al Taawon 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 39% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al Taawon in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 43% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 39% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Taawon drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.77 xG and Al Taawon 0.87 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.34 / defence 0.63 against Al Taawon attack 1.00 / defence 0.89, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 58% | Draw 25% | Al Taawon 17%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 56%, Al Taawon 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taawon's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.