Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr meet at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Qadisiyah FC at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Nassr have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Nassr are 0.70 PPG clear of Al-Qadisiyah FC in recent Pro League fixtures (2.20 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al-Qadisiyah FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Qadisiyah FC — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 41% versus Al-Nassr 74%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 44% | Al-Nassr 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.09 xG and Al-Nassr 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.900 / defence 0.801 | Al-Nassr attack 1.326 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.294. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 61 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 29% | Draw 28% | Al-Nassr 43%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Nassr 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 40% | Al-Nassr 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 29% | Draw 28% | Al-Nassr 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.09 / Al-Nassr 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.900 / def 0.801 | Al-Nassr attack 1.326 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Al-Nassr xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 April 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 29% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.33x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 27/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
29%
3.43
28%
3.58
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.46
1.37
Al-Nassr xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
7%
13.54
14%
6.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.37 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 16W 4D 7L from 27 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr, meanwhile, have gone 17W 6D 4L across 27 games — 2.11 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for Al-Qadisiyah FC against 2.11 for Al-Nassr. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 9W 2D 2L from 13 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Nassr's away record stands at 9W 2D 2L across 13 trips, a 2.23 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.15 scored and 1.07 conceded. Al-Nassr's attacking output running into Al-Qadisiyah FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 74%.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 16W 4D 7L in their last 27 games (1.93 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 17W 6D 4L in their last 27 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.23 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Qadisiyah FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 4, Al-Nassr have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 3-1 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 31%, Al-Nassr 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 77% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 77% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 77% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Qadisiyah FC defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Nassr 2-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.09 xG and Al-Nassr 1.37 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.80 against Al-Nassr attack 1.33 / defence 0.83, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 29% | Draw 28% | Al-Nassr 43%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Qadisiyah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 44%, Al-Nassr 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.93 PPG, Al-Nassr 2.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.