Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm meet at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 7W 2D 1L at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Hazm's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Hazm have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hazm have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Al-Qadisiyah FC's favour (2.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W, Al-Hazm 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2026, ended 2–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Al-Hazm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 65% and Al-Hazm 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 68% | Al-Hazm 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.85 xG and Al-Hazm 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.280 / defence 1.007 | Al-Hazm attack 0.922 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 40 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Draw 28% | Al-Hazm 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Hazm 4.55. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al-Hazm 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% | Draw 28% | Al-Hazm 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.85 / Al-Hazm 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.280 / def 1.007 | Al-Hazm attack 0.922 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Al-Hazm xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 24 May 2027 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 50% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.28x the league average against Al-Hazm's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hazm's attack (0.92x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.62
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.04
1.20
Al-Hazm xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
3%
28.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.20 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have picked up 2.30 PPG on a 28W 8D 4L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hazm's form line: 13W 11D 16L from 40 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Hazm, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 2.25 PPG from 20 outings (13W 6D 1L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 4W 8D 8L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.10 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al-Hazm
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 28W 8D 4L in their last 40 games (2.30 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 13W 11D 16L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.25 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 60%, Al-Hazm 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 55% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 60% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 55% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.