Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium plays host to Al-Qadisiyah FC versus Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 7W 3D 0L at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fateh (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Al-Qadisiyah FC's favour (2.60 vs 1.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W, Al-Fateh 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Qadisiyah FC half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Qadisiyah FC 53% and Al-Fateh 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% | Al-Fateh 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.98 xG and Al-Fateh 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.394 / defence 0.728 | Al-Fateh attack 0.778 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.332. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.394 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 53 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 66% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 13%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Fateh 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al-Fateh 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 66% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.98 / Al-Fateh 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.394 / def 0.728 | Al-Fateh attack 0.778 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Al-Fateh xG
46%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1 - 1 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 66% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.39x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fateh's attack (0.78x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
66%
1.52
21%
4.79
13%
7.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.73
0.75
Al-Fateh xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
7.60
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
2%
54.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.75 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Qadisiyah FC come into this having played 53 games, going 34W 9D 10L for 2.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.17 PPG from 53 outings (17W 11D 25L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home form reads 19W 5D 2L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 0.92 points per game from 26 outings (6W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.36 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 68%.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 34W 9D 10L in their last 53 games (2.09 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 17W 11D 25L in their last 53 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.38 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Qadisiyah FC won 3-0 on 23 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fateh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, Al-Fateh 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 50% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Al-Fateh in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Fateh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 54% of Al-Fateh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 50% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.98 xG and Al-Fateh 0.75 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.39 / defence 0.73 against Al-Fateh attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 66% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 13%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%, Al-Fateh 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.