Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 Abha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium plays host to Al-Qadisiyah FC versus Abha in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 16 October 2026 at 13:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Qadisiyah FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Abha (all games): 0W 2D 5L across 7 Pro League outings this term — 0.29 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 1.86 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Abha away from home this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Qadisiyah FC. A 2.21 PPG lead over Abha (2.50 vs 0.29) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Al-Qadisiyah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Abha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 43% versus Abha 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% | Abha 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.33 xG and Abha 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.308 / defence 1.060 | Abha attack 0.758 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.395. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Abha bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 7 Abha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 62% | Draw 24% | Abha 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Abha 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | Abha 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 62% | Draw 24% | Abha 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.33 / Abha 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.308 / def 1.060 | Abha attack 0.758 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Abha xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha kicked off at 13:15 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2 - 1 Abha.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 62% chance of winning, Abha a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Abha (all comps): 0W-2D-5L in 7 | 0.29 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.86 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.31) and Abha's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Abha's attack (0.76x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 42/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.21
14%
6.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.45
1.12
Abha xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
6.91
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
10%
10.25
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
1%
70.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.12 for Abha, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 5W 1D 1L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Abha's form line: 0W 2D 5L from 7 games, 0.29 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Abha.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That actually lags their 2.29 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Abha have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Abha are on 0.71 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Abha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 games (2.29 PPG), while Abha have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Abha away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 1.75 PPG; Abha away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Abha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Abha in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Abha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha?
From 1 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, Abha have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 2-1 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 75%, Abha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 75% for Abha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Abha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Abha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Abha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 50% of Abha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Abha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 75% of Abha's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Abha tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Abha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Abha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Abha 2-1 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.33 xG and Abha 1.12 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.31 / defence 1.06 against Abha attack 0.76 / defence 1.25, drawn from 42/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 62% | Draw 24% | Abha 14%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%, Abha 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Abha's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 0.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.