Al Okhdood 0-0 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Damac (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Okhdood face Damac.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Damac at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 13 February 2025 at 14:10 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Okhdood — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Damac are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Damac have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Al Okhdood's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Damac winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Damac have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Damac in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 49% versus Damac 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 55% | Damac 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.15 xG and Damac 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.725 / defence 1.129 | Damac attack 0.951 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.336. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Al Okhdood games / 53 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 30% | Draw 26% | Damac 44%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Damac 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Damac offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 50% | Damac 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Feb 2025, 14:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 30% | Draw 26% | Damac 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Okhdood 1.15 / Damac 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.725 / def 1.129 | Damac attack 0.951 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Damac (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Damac xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Damac kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Damac kicked off at 14:10 on Thursday 13 February 2025 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Damac?
Al Okhdood 0 - 0 Damac.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Damac part of?
Al Okhdood vs Damac is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 30% chance of winning, Damac a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Okhdood and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Damac?
Record (3 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 0 | Damac 3W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Damac in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Damac (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
30%
3.29
26%
3.82
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.59
1.44
Damac xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
7%
13.84
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.44 for Damac, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Okhdood come into this having played 53 games, going 13W 9D 31L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.21 PPG from 53 outings (16W 16D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Okhdood on 0.91 PPG, Damac on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Okhdood's home form reads 7W 3D 16L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 0.92 points per game from 26 outings (6W 6D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.36 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 13W 9D 31L in their last 53 games (0.91 PPG), while Damac have gone 16W 16D 21L in their last 53 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Damac away?
Al Okhdood's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.92 PPG; Damac away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Damac go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Damac specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
5
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Damac?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, Damac have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Damac 2-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 50%, Damac 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Al Okhdood) and 50% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 31% of games; Damac in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Okhdood's games and 62% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 50% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Damac tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Damac in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Okhdood's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Al Okhdood and Damac drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.15 xG and Damac 1.44 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Okhdood fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Damac landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.72 / defence 1.13 against Damac attack 0.95 / defence 1.01, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 30% | Draw 26% | Damac 44%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 55%, Damac 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Damac's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.91 PPG, Damac 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.